EUR/USD regains the 1.18 area ahead of data

  • EUR/USD manages to bounce off lows in the 1.1740/35 band.
  • The greenback picks up pace in the wake of the FOMC event.
  • Final EMU CPI figures, US Initial Claims next of note in the calendar.

The single currency is extending the bearish note in the second half of the week, with EUR/USD initially dropping and testing fresh monthly lows in the vicinity of 1.1740.

EUR/USD offered post-FOMC, focuses on data

EUR/USD has managed to regain buying pressure after visiting the 1.1740/35 band during the Asian trading hours, as market participants were adjusting to the latest message from the Federal Reserve at its Wednesday’s event.

In fact, the greenback gained momentum after the FOMC delivered an upbeat assessment of the ongoing economic recovery despite strengthening the “lower for longer” stance from the Fed. Indeed, and according to the “dots plot”, the next interest rate hike is expected to be delivered not before 2024.

Data wise in the euro area, final inflation figures for the month of August are next on tap. Across the pond, weekly Claims should take centre stage along with the Philly Fed manufacturing gauge and housing data results.

Looking at the euro futures markets, investors reduced their open interest positions sharply on Wednesday (according to data from CME Group) amidst the negative performance of EUR/USD. That said, a deeper pullback seems to lack conviction among traders, therefore leaving the door open for the continuation of the bullish trend in the near-term.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD dropped and recorded fresh monthly lows near 1.1740 following the FOMC gathering on Wednesday. Despite the move, the pair’s outlook remains positive and bouts of weakness are so far deemed as short-lived and look contained. In addition, the improved sentiment in the risk-associated universe, auspicious results from domestic fundamentals - which have been in turn supporting further the view of a strong economic recovery following the coronavirus crisis – as well as a calmer US-China trade front are all underpinning the constructive view on the single currency. The solid positive stance in the speculative community, the latest message from the ECB and the euro area’s current account position also collaborate with this view on the currency.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.09% at 1.1805 and faces the next support at 1.1737 (monthly low Sep.17) seconded by 1.1709 (38.2% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1695 (monthly low Aug.3). On the other hand, a break above 1.1965 (monthly high Aug.18) would target 1.2011 (2020 high Sep.1) en route to 1.2032 (23.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally).

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