EUR/USD: Range-bound movements on the day – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Euro (EUR) was little changed, last at 1.1415 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Room for Fed to resume easing cycle in due course

"Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias for now while RSI fell. Support at 1310 (21 DMA), 1.1235 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high). Immediate resistance at 1.1420/30 levels before 1.15 levels."

"Last week ECB lowered rate by 25bps, as widely anticipated. But more importantly, Lagarde commented that the ECB is getting to the end of a monetary cycle 'that was responding to compounded shocks, including COVID, the illegitimate war in Ukraine and the energy crisis'. She also said that the ECB is now 'in a good position' to deal with uncertainties ahead, not least due to US trade policies."

"Other ECB officials have also echoed similar views. Vujcic said that the ECB is nearly done while Stournaras said that the bar for more rate cuts is high. Our house view looks for 1 more cut this year, but this is already more than priced in. ECB signalling an 'end is near' reinforced our earlier view that prospects of ECB cut cycle nearing its end and room for Fed to resume easing cycle in due course should see yield differentials narrow in favour of EUR."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD bounces off weekly low on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

AUD/USD recovers slightly from the weekly low during the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, the US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, which, along with hawkish Fed expectations, act as a tailwind for the buck. Furthermore, diminishing odds of an RBA rate hike in June cap the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report on Friday.

USD/JPY remains close to 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high during the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions favor the USD bulls amid Fed rate hike bets and also hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets amid economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, suggesting that dips are likely to be bought into.

Gold bounces off one-week low; upside seems capped on Iran uncertainty

Gold recovers from a one-week low touched during the Asian session on Thursday, as news of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire acts as a headwind for the safe-haven US Dollar. However, renewed hostilities in the Gulf, along with stalled US-Iran peace talks, keep geopolitical risks in play and should support the USD. Moreover, US-Iran tensions remain supportive of higher Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for higher interest rates for longer. This should cap the non-yielding bullion and warrants caution for bulls.

Bitcoin drops below $65K amid reinforced bear market signals

Bitcoin dipped further below $65,000 on Wednesday, with onchain data from Glassnode signaling a market firmly in a bear phase. The decline has pushed prices back into a key valuation range between the Realized Price and the True Market Mean. Glassnode noted that a key shift in market structure has also emerged.

The upside-down math of debt

In 2010, Professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published a paper, Growth in a Time of Debt, which instantly went viral. The main thesis of the paper was that once a government's debt-to-GDP ratio crosses above 90%, a financial crisis and default are around the corner.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.