EUR/USD prints weekly highs above 1.1160 ahead of ECB, data


  • EUR/USD keeps the bid tone around 1.1150/60.
  • Markets’ attention now shifts to data, trade.
  • ECB minutes, US Retail Sales, Philly index coming up later.

The steady/offered bias around the greenback is allowing EUR/USD to challenge weekly peaks beyond 1.1160 on Thursday.

EUR/USD now looks to data

The pair is up for the second session in a row in the second half of the week, extending the recovery further after bottoming out in the 1.1080 region earlier in the month. The move up is also underpinned by the recent breakout of the critical 200-day SMA in the 1.1140 area.

Spot saw its upside renewed in past hours pari passu with the re-emergence of the selling bias around the greenback, which forced the US Dollar Index (DXY) to recede from YTD highs amidst declining yields and after the US and China clinched the ‘Phase 1’ trade deal on Wednesday.

Later in the session, the ECB will publish its minutes from the December meeting. Across the pond, investors will closely follow the release of December’s Retail Sales along with the Philly Fed index, weekly Claims, Business Inventories, the NAHB index and TIC flows.

What to look for around EUR

The pair left behind the key resistance area around 1.1140 and is now looking to extend the move further north. In the meantime, markets’ focus is now seen shifting to a more data-dependent stance while China and the US warm up for the ‘Phase 2’ negotiations. On the more macro view, the slowdown in the region remains far from abated and continues to justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance from the ECB. On the latter, we should have a more detailed assessment of the latest ECB meeting later on Thursday with the publication of the bank’s Accounts.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.12% at 1.1161 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1163 (weekly high Jan.15) seconded by 1.1186 (61.8% of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1199 (high Dec.13 2019). On the downside, a breach of 1.1095 (55-day SMA) would target 1.1085 (2020 low Jan.10) en route to 1.1064 (low Dec.20 2019).

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