EUR/USD Price Forecast: Breaks through 100-hour SMA as bears await acceptance below 1.1900
- EUR/USD meets with some supply on Friday amid a modest pickup in the USD demand.
- The intraday technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for further losses.
- A break below the 38.2% Fibo. level would set the stage for an extension of the downfall.
The EUR/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's good two-way price swings and retests sub-1.1900 levels during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, recover around 25 pips from the daily low and currently trade around the 1.1920-1.1925 region, down 0.35% for the day.
The US Dollar (USD) gains some positive traction and looks to build on its recovery from a four-year low, touched earlier this week. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) flagged growing concerns over the Euro's (EUR) quick appreciation against the USD, which turns out to be another factor exerting some pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, intraday weakness below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) could be seen as a fresh trigger for the EUR/USD bears. Spot prices, however, showed resilience below the 1.1900 mark and bounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest leg up from the monthly swing low, touched last week.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line slips below the Signal line in negative territory, with a small negative histogram suggesting fading upside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 42, reinforcing a consolidative tone and warranting caution before positioning for deeper EUR/USD losses.
The 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 1.1892 offers initial support, with the 50% retracement at 1.1832 below. A recovery could target the 23.6% retracement at 1.1967, whereas a break under the initial support would risk extending the pullback from the 1.2080-1.2085 region, or the highest level since June 2021, touched earlier this week.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD 1-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.25% | 0.32% | 0.46% | 0.16% | 0.55% | 0.39% | 0.29% | |
| EUR | -0.25% | 0.06% | 0.22% | -0.10% | 0.30% | 0.14% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.32% | -0.06% | 0.15% | -0.16% | 0.24% | 0.07% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.46% | -0.22% | -0.15% | -0.31% | 0.08% | -0.09% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.31% | 0.39% | 0.22% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.55% | -0.30% | -0.24% | -0.08% | -0.39% | -0.16% | -0.27% | |
| NZD | -0.39% | -0.14% | -0.07% | 0.09% | -0.22% | 0.16% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.29% | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.19% | -0.13% | 0.27% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
