EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA continues to act as key barrier

EUR/USD flattens around 1.1800 ahead of flash German HICP and the US PPI data.
The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the March and April policy meetings.
EUR/USD continues to wobble near the 20-day EMA around 1.1800.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair trades flat around 1.1800 during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) wobbles ahead of the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 97.75.

Investors will closely monitor the US producer inflation data to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The data will provide some hints regarding the current state of inflation. Latest commentaries from several Fed officials have signaled that they are concerned about inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target for a longer period.

Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the March and April policy meetings.

In the Eurozone, investors await the German flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for February, which will be published at 13:00 GMT.

Flash German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is estimated to have grown 0.5% after Month-on-Month (MoM) after declining 0.1% in January, with annual figures growing steadily by 2.1%.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades sideways at around 1.1800 at the press time. The pair consolidates near the 20-day exponential moving average, which has flattened around 1.1810, signaling a loss of directional conviction after the prior advance. Price action has stalled under the recent 1.19 area, while the RSI has been trading inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating neutral momentum. Taken together, the evidence points to a broadly neutral near-term bias.

Immediate support emerges at the February 19 low of 1.1742, followed by more substantial downside risk toward the January 22 low of 1.1670. On the topside, initial resistance stands at 1.1860, ahead of the recent swing high in the 1.1915 region.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

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