EUR/USD Price Analysis: Rising bets for a test of 1.2000 (and below)

EUR/USD extends the leg lower to the 1.2030/25 band.
Further decline could see the 1.20 level challenged once again.

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

EUR/USD adds to Wednesday’s losses and flirt with the 100-day SMA near 1.2020.

Despite the ongoing weakness is seen as corrective only, it carries the potential to extend further and challenge the psychological 1.20 yardstick in the near-term. If cleared, a subsequent move to the YTD lows near 1.1950 (recorded in early February) should emerge on the horizon. Below this area, the selling pressure is expected to pick up pace and expose 1.1887 (Fibo level).

On the broader picture, the constructive stance in EUR/USD remains unchanged while above the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1804.

Looking at the monthly chart, the (solid) breakout of the 2008-2020 line is a big bullish event and should underpin the continuation of the current trend in the longer run.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.2042
Today Daily Change	40
Today Daily Change %	-0.17
Today daily open	1.2062

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2097
Daily SMA50	1.2141
Daily SMA100	1.2034
Daily SMA200	1.1813

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2113
Previous Daily Low	1.2043
Previous Weekly High	1.2243
Previous Weekly Low	1.2065
Previous Monthly High	1.2243
Previous Monthly Low	1.1952
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.207
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2086
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2032
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2002
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.1962
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2103
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2143
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2174

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD turns south toward 0.6900 as USD firms up

AUD/USD sees fresh selling and drops toward 0.6900 in late Asian trading on Monday, as renewed US Dollar strength weighs on the pair amid lingering Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Focus remains on Oil prices, Treasury bond yields, and RBA expectations for fresh trading impetus in the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 amid hawkish BoJ bets, firmer USD

USD/JPY erases losses and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Monday, trading within a one-week-old range. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the US Dollar, despite fading Fed rate hike hopes, supporting the pair's rebound. However, further upside could be capped by hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks that could support the Japanese Yen.

Gold languishes below $4,200 amid high US yields

Gold trims some losses on Monday, but remains trapped within previous ranges, with upside attempts limited below $4,200 and with two-month lows of $4,110 at a short distance. The recent pullback on the US Dollar Index has provided some support for precious metals although the high US Treasury yields are keeping a floor on US Dollar dips so far.

Pi Network risks a steeper decline as bearish momentum builds

Pi Network extends losses below $0.090 maintaining a steady decline for the fifth consecutive day. The retail demand remains firm, with the notional value of active perpeutals holding above $10 million. The technical outlook for PI remains bearish as bearish momentum mounts.

ISM Services PMI expected to show robust US economy in September

The US ISM Services PMI is expected to improve marginally in September. The US services sector is expected to remain well into expansionary territory. Bets of further Fed tightening appear to have lost traction in the last few days.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.