EUR/USD Price Analysis: Recovery needs validation from 1.0910 hurdle, mid-tier EU catalysts and yields

EUR/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high, bounces off six-week low.
Pullback in Treasury bond yields, light calendar allow Euro bears to take a breather.
Final prints of Eurozone inflation, ECB’s Lane eyed for clear directions.
Convergence of 100-EMA, one-month-old descending trend line prods Euro buyers.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

EUR/USD consolidates weekly losses by bouncing off a 1.5-month low to print the first daily gain in three. In doing so, the Euro pair benefits from the US Dollar’s retreat, amid a pullback in the Treasury bond yields, during the early hours of Friday. It’s worth noting a rebound in the RSI (14) line from the nearly oversold conditions also underpins the major currency pair’s latest rebound.

Even so, comparatively better US data and the looming recession risk for Germany join the sour sentiment to keep the Euro buyers in check ahead of the second-tier Eurozone data/events. Among them, the final readings of Eurozone inflation for July and a speech from the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane will be crucial to follow.

Technically, a convergence of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) joins a downward-sloping trend line from July 18 to highlight the 1.0910 as a strong upside hurdle for the EUR/USD bulls to cross to retake control. Additionally, the bearish MACD signals also challenge the Euro pair’s upside hopes.

In a case where the EUR/USD manages to cross the 1.0910 resistance confluence, the odds of witnessing a rally towards the 1.1000 psychological magnet and then to June’s top surrounding 1.1015 can’t be ruled out.

On the flip side, a four-month-old horizontal support zone near 1.0840-35 appears an immediate challenge for the EUR/USD sellers.

Following that, a convergence of the 200-day EMA and an upward-sloping trend line from March, close to 1.0800 at the latest, will be a tough nut to crack for the EUR/USD bears.

EUR/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Pullback expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	1.089
Today Daily Change	0.0018
Today Daily Change %	0.17%
Today daily open	1.0872

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0981
Daily SMA50	1.0975
Daily SMA100	1.0931
Daily SMA200	1.0789

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0918
Previous Daily Low	1.0856
Previous Weekly High	1.1065
Previous Weekly Low	1.0929
Previous Monthly High	1.1276
Previous Monthly Low	1.0834
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.088
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0895
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0846
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0821
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0785
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0908
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0944
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.097

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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