EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair remains under 20-day SMA, retreated towars 1.0370

EUR/USD inches lower to 1.0370 on Tuesday after repeated rejections at the 20-day SMA.
The RSI rises to 45, suggesting improving momentum but still hinting at a cautious outlook.
MACD shows flat green bars, indicating easing bearish pressure yet no clear bullish shift.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

EUR/USD managed to climb towards the 1.0370-1.0390 area at the begging of the year, continuing its fragile attempt to recover from recent losses. Despite this uptick, the pair has repeatedly struggled to decisively break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) since the start of 2025, reinforcing the notion that sellers may still dictate the short-term direction.

Technical readings are mixed. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has lately improved to 45 suggesting a modest pickup in buying interest but it remains in negative territory, indicating that buyers are not yet fully in control. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat green bars, implying that bearish momentum is easing but hasn’t given way to a sustained bullish push.

Looking ahead, a solid move above the 20-day SMA would be necessary to establish a more convincing recovery and open the door for further gains. Absent that, the pair remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure, keeping its recent bounce on cautious footing.

EUR/USD daily chart

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

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