EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls lose momentum as pair faces rejection at 100-day SMA

EUR/USD slips 0.22% to 1.0450 on Friday, reversing after testing the 100-day SMA.
RSI drops sharply to 55, signaling weakening bullish momentum near the midpoint.
MACD histogram prints lower green bars, indicating fading buying pressure and potential for further downside.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair faced a setback on Friday, declining by 0.44% to settle near 1.0450 after encountering firm resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0540. This rejection marks a critical turning point for the pair, suggesting that bullish momentum is beginning to wane after a recent run higher. Without a decisive break above this key level, bulls appear to be losing their grip on the market.

Technical indicators are reinforcing the weakening outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen sharply to 55, approaching the neutral midpoint of 50, which could signal a shift in sentiment if breached. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows flat green bars with a downward tilt, reflecting diminishing buying pressure and a growing risk of a bearish reversal.

If EUR/USD fails to reclaim the 100-day SMA in the near term, the recent upward move could be deemed a temporary correction rather than a structural shift. The pair may either retreat further or become range-bound between the 100-day SMA resistance and the 20-day SMA, which could act as initial support around the 1.0415 region. A sustained break below the 20-day SMA would further solidify the bearish outlook.

EUR/USD daily chart

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

GBP/USD keeps the bid bias near 1.3550

GBP/USD leaves behind part of the recent three-day retracement and hovers around the 1.3550 region on Monday. The Greenback’s fresh downward trend helps Cable and the rest of the risk complex recoup part of the recent ground lost while attention remains on the potential Fed rate path.

EUR/USD retakes 1.1600; looks at the 200-day SMA

EUR/USD manages to gather fresh steam and advances past the 1.1600 hurdle as Monday’s NA session draws to a close. Indeed, the pair patially reverses Friday’s sharp retracement amid the renewed downside momentum in the US Dollar. Moving forward, the flash Inflation Rate in the euro zone and US JOLTs and the ISM Manufacturing should keep investors entertained on turnaround Tuesday.

Gold bulls seem hesitant above $4,450 on USD demand

Gold is struggling to build on the overnight bounce from sub-$4,400 levels in Asia on Tuesday amid a stronger US Dollar. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish message, along with inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices, lift September rate-hike bets. Adding to this, escalating US-Iran tensions could support the safe-haven USD, warranting caution for XAU/USD bulls.

Bitcoin shows resilience at $78,000 – Arbitrum, Curve DAO rally

The broader cryptocurrency market sustains its risk-on sentiment, with Bitcoin (BTC) showing resilience near $78,000 on Tuesday. Arbitrum (ARB) records double-digit gains over the last 24 hours as the Robinhood app, built on Arbitrum Orbit, hits a record high in revenue collection, while Curve DAO (CRV) follows suit. Bitcoin trades at $78,415 at press time on Tuesday, holding a clear bullish bias.

Fed Chair Warsh runs open-mouth operations at Jackson Hole but can he deliver?

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh moved markets on Friday with his Jackson Hole speech, even though the central bank has yet to do anything to move inflation. Clearly, Warsh wants to convey a message. He’s tough on inflation, and the Fed will “deliver price stability.”

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.