EUR/USD: Market most oversold since 2015, eyes Italian yields and German CPI

A corrective rally is overdue, the EUR/USD 14-day RSI indicates.
A drop in Italian bond yields and a better-than-expected German CPI could put a bid under the common currency.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1510 on Tuesday - the lowest level since July 20, pushing the 14-day relative strength index deeper into oversold territory (below 30.00).

As of writing, the RSI stands at 19.42 - the lowest level since March 2015 i.e. the pair is most oversold in over three years. Hence, a corrective rally could be in the offing and could be a sharp one if the Italian bond yields drop and the German preliminary CPI for May beat estimates.

The currency pair has been hit hard in the last couple of days on fears that fresh elections in Italy may deliver a stronger mandate to anti-EU parties.

In the US session, the focus would shift to US Q1 preliminary GDP estimate and ADP employment report. A weaker-than-expected data would force markets to scale back expectations of four Fed rate hikes this year and hence could weigh over the US dollar.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1535. The resistance is seen at 1.1549 (resistance on the hourly chart), 1.16 (50-hour MA), and 1.1640 (May 29 high). On the downside, support is seen at 1.15 (psychological level), 1.1429 (gradually descending 200-week MA), and 1.1409 (100-week MA).

	TREND INDEX	OB/OS INDEX	VOLATILY INDEX
15M	Strongly Bearish	Neutral	High
1H	Bullish	Neutral	Low
4H	Bullish	Oversold	High
1D	Bullish	Oversold	Expanding
1W	Bearish	Oversold	Shrinking
Updated May 30, 04:00 GMT

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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