|

EUR/USD marches towards 1.0900 as Fed/ECB policy stance diverges

  • EUR/USD is eyeing a re-test of 1.0900 amid the risk-on market mood.
  • Investors' risk-taking capacity is improving again as the Fed might trim the policy tightening pace further.
  • The ECB looks all set to hike interest rates further by 50 bps to 3.25%.

The EUR/USD pair is aiming to extend its journey toward the round-level resistance of 1.0900 in the Asian session. The asset has picked strength as the risk-on impulse is gaining traction again. The demand for the major currency pair is escalating maid divergence policy stances for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hike projections.

Meanwhile, investors’ risk appetite is improving again as the S&P500 futures have recovered their morning losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has eased further to near 101.50 amid rising chances of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike by the Fed in its upcoming meeting in February. Also, the 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped to near 3.51%.

Subdued retail demand, declining employment at a healthy pace, a fall in the scale of economic activities, and firms offering products at lower prices at factory gates are impacting the economic prospects in the United States but are strengthening the Fed in its combat against higher inflation. This is resulting in rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might trim the extent of the interest rate hike again.

Fed chair Jerome Powell has already trimmed the interest rate hike extent to 50 basis points (bps) in its December monetary policy meeting after four consecutive 75 bps rate hikes. The Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps ahead.

On the Eurozone front, ECB President Christine Lagarde and his teammates are favoring the continuation of higher interest rate hikes to soften inflationary pressures significantly.

ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir cited on Monday that inflation easing was good news but added that it was not a reason to slow the pace of interest rate hikes, as reported by Reuters. He further added, "I am convinced that we need to deliver two more hikes by 50 basis points (bps).”

The latest Reuters poll of economists claims the European Central Bank (ECB) hiking rates by another 50 bps at its February monetary policy meeting while the policy rate is expected to reach 3.25% by mid-year.

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price1.0879
Today Daily Change0.0011
Today Daily Change %0.10
Today daily open1.0868
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.0724
Daily SMA501.0582
Daily SMA1001.0241
Daily SMA2001.031
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.0927
Previous Daily Low1.0846
Previous Weekly High1.0888
Previous Weekly Low1.0766
Previous Monthly High1.0736
Previous Monthly Low1.0393
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.0896
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.0877
Daily Pivot Point S11.0834
Daily Pivot Point S21.08
Daily Pivot Point S31.0754
Daily Pivot Point R11.0915
Daily Pivot Point R21.0961
Daily Pivot Point R31.0995

Author

Sagar Dua

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

More from Sagar Dua
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD falls to near 1.1700 due to safe-haven demand

EUR/USD extends its losses, trading around 1.1710 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand, driven by a renewed rise in geopolitical risks following the United States’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

GBP/USD trades with modest losses below mid-1.3400s as geopolitical tensions lift USD

The GBP/USD pair opens with a modest bearish gap at the start of a new week and trades just below mid-1.3400s during the Asian session, down 0.10% for the day. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and manage to hold above last week's swing low amid mixed fundamental cues.

Gold jumps over 1.5% to near $4,400 on US-Venezuela tensions

Gold holds sizeable gains near $4,400 in the Asian trading hours on Monday. The traditional safe-haven metal capitalizes on escalating geopolitical risks after the United States' capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Traders will closely monitor developments surrounding the US seizure of Maduro and await the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index data later on Monday. 

Powerful guide to ISM, building permits, NFP and Silver technicals

Next week is important for U.S. markets. We get key economic data that can move stocks, bonds, and the dollar. The main reports are ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, Building Permits, and Non-Farm Payrolls. Traders will watch these closely.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).