EUR/USD: Maintaining a clear sell-on-rallies bias – Danske Bank

Matías Salord FXStreet

The European Central Bank, as expected, rose the key interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday. Analysts at Danske Bank see another 50bp hike in March and a 25bp in May. They consider that medium-term drivers indicate that the EUR/USD pair is overvalued.

Markets conclude ECB is close to being done

“Markets took the ECB’s communication as a sign that the ECB is close to ending its hiking cycle, as bond yields rallied strongly. We judge that today’s communication reflects a very split governing council. We still expect the ECB to hike its policy rates by 50bp in March and 25bp in May.”

“In recent weeks, EUR/USD has defied the shift and sudden underperformance of Eurozone equities, which we otherwise deem to have been an important driver behind the EUR/USD rally since September (Eurozone equities overperforming during this period). Our tactical conviction on EUR/USD is not high, but we maintain a clear sell-on-rallies bias for the cross as we still think medium-term drivers indicate that EUR/USD is overvalued (and not undervalued).”

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

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