EUR/USD loses the faith and sinks below 1.0500

The appetite for the risk complex appears mitigated and forces EUR/USD to shed part of the recent ground and retreats to the area below 1.0500 the figure midweek.

EUR/USD looks to data, Powell

After two consecutive daily advances, EUR/USD now comes under pressure on the back of the resumption of the sentiment towards the greenback, particularly ahead of the upcoming testimony by Chief Powell before the Senate.

In addition, speculation around the ECB’s fragmentation toll appears on the rise and the lack of details/further progress could have undermined the recent bullish bias in the European currency.

Spot is expected to be under scrutiny throughout the session, as investors will closely follow Powell’s testimony and any mention of the potential next moves by the Federal Reserve in the current context of tightening monetary conditions.

In the domestic calendar, the advanced Consumer Confidence for the broader Euroland is due later along with speeches by ECB Board members de Guindos, Elderson and McCaul; while weekly MBA Mortgage Applications and speeches by FOMC’s Evans, Barkin and Harker are all due later in the NA session.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD succumbs to the renewed buying interest around the greenback, which has been also exacerbated by speculation of a hawkish message from Chief Powell at his testimony later on Wednesday.

In the meantime, the single currency continues to closely follow any developments surrounding the ECB and its plans to design a de-fragmentation tool in light of the upcoming start of the hiking cycle.

However, EUR/USD is still far away from exiting the woods and it is expected to remain at the mercy of dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence, while higher German yields, persistent elevated inflation in the euro area and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the region are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro.

Key events in the euro area this week: Flash EMU Consumer Confidence (Wednesday) – ECB General Council Meeting, Flash EMU, Germany PMIs (Thursday) – Germany IFO Business Climate (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Fragmentation risks. Kickstart of the ECB hiking cycle in July? Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro bloc. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is losing 0.15% at 1.0514 and a break below 1.0358 (monthly low June 15) would target 1.0348 (2022 low May 13) en route to 1.0300 (psychological level). On the upside, the pair faces the next hurdle at 1.0601 (weekly high June 15) followed by 1.0635 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.0786 (monthly high May 30).