- EUR/USD’s downside met contention in the 1.10 area.
- November’s German flash CPI surprised to the downside.
- US markets are closed due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
After a brief test of daily lows in the 1.10 neighbourhood, EUR/USD is now managing to regain some traction amidst marginal gains.
EUR/USD ignores German CPI
The pair keeps the choppy performance well and sound so far this week against the backdrop of no relevant US-China headlines and the steady activity in the USD-dynamics.
So far, the 1.0990 region acts as quite a decent support while the upside remains well capped by the 1.1030 zone for the time being. It is worth recalling that above the key 55-day SMA near 1.1040, the downside pressure is expected to mitigate somewhat.
In the euro docket, key German advanced inflation figures for the month of November disappointed markets once again, showing that headline consumer prices are expected to raise at an annualized 1.1% and to contract at a monthly 0.8%. The broader HICP also came in on the soft side, with prices seen contracting 0.8% inter-month and rising 1.2% from a year earlier.
In the meantime, volatility is expected to remain thin and trade conditions scarce in light of the inactivity in the US markets due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
What to look for around EUR
Across the pond, markets will be close due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Spot has been rejected from the vicinity of the 1.1100 barrier once again last week, sparking a corrective downside to the 1.10 neighbourhood, which continues to act as a solid contention area. As always, EUR is expected to keep tracking trade headlines and USD-dynamics for the time being. On the more macro view, the slowdown in the region appears far from abated despite some positive results from key fundamentals in Germany as of late. This does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the cautious/bearish view on the European currency in the medium term.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.07% at 1.1004 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1040 (55-day SMA) seconded by 1.1076 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1097 (monthly high Nov.21). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.0989 (monthly low Nov.14) would target 1.0925 (low Sep.3) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1).
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