EUR/USD: Likely to rally further – UOB Group

A break above 1.1275 could trigger further rally; the levels to monitor are 1.1350 and 1.1400. In the longer run, Euro (EUR) is likely to rally further; the levels to monitor are 1.1400 and 1.1450, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Levels to monitor is 1.1450

24-HOUR VIEW: "When EUR was at 1.0950 yesterday, we indicated that 'the sharp decline in EUR has room to test 1.0895 before stabilisation is likely.' We also indicated that 'any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.0850.' We were incorrect, as EUR lifted off and skyrocketed, reaching a high of 1.1241. EUR continues to rise in early Asian trade today. The impulsive rally shows no sign of abating, and today, a break above the 2023 high of 1.1275 could trigger a further rally. The levels to monitor is 1.1350 and 1.1400. On the downside, any pullback is likely to hold above 1.1150 (minor support is at 1.1200)."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a positive EUR view since early this month. In our latest narrative from Tuesday (08 Apr, spot at 1.0925), we indicated that 'the decrease in momentum indicates the chance for EUR to rise has diminished.' We added, 'a breach of 1.0850 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that instead of advancing further, EUR has entered a range-trading phase.' EUR subsequently traded choppily but remained above 1.0850. Yesterday, in a sudden move, it surged by 2.25% (1.1197), marking the largest single-day gain since 2015. At the current level, EUR is not far below the 2023 high of 1.1275. A breach of this level seems likely and could potentially trigger EUR to rally further. The levels to monitor are 1.1400 and 1.1450. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 1.1070 from 1.0850."