EUR/USD: Likelihood of EUR reaching 1.1490 is decreasing – UOB Group

Euro (EUR) could rise, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1575/1.1635. In the longer run, the likelihood of EUR reaching 1.1490 during this phase of weakness is decreasing, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1575/1.1635

24-HOUR VIEW: "When EUR was at 1.1565 in the early Asian session yesterday, we were of the view that it 'could dip below last week’s low of 1.1540.' However, we pointed out that 'based on the current momentum, a sustained decline below this level is unlikely.' Our expectations did not quite materialise, as EUR rebounded after dipping to a low of 1.1540. While EUR could rise today, given that there is no significant increase in momentum, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1575/1.1635."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After holding a negative view on EUR for about a week, in our latest narrative from Monday (13 Oct, spot at 1.1610), we noted that 'downward momentum is slowing, and the likelihood of EUR reaching 1.1490 during this phase of weakness is decreasing.' Yesterday, EUR tested last week’s low of 1.1540 before rebounding to close higher by 0.32% at 1.1605. Downward momentum continues to slow, and unless EUR breaks and holds below 1.1540 soon, a breach of 1.1645 will not be surprising and would indicate that the weakness from early last week has stabilised."