EUR/USD: Level to watch is 1.1955 – UOB Group

Strong momentum continues to suggest a higher Euro (EUR); it remains to be seen if it can break above 1.1915. In the longer run, the risk is for EUR to continue to rise; the level to watch is 1.1955, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The risk is for EUR to continue to rise

24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR rose and closed at 1.1760 two days ago. Yesterday, we indicated that 'the buildup in momentum is likely to continue to carry EUR higher.' However, we noted that 'it is unclear for now whether there is sufficient momentum for EUR to break above the major resistance at 1.1790.' EUR not only broke above 1.1790, but also surpassed the early Jul peak of 1.1830, reaching a high of 1.1878. While the sharp rally appears excessive, strong momentum continues to suggest a higher EUR today. That said, it remains to be seen if EUR can break above the next resistance at 1.1915. On the downside, support levels are at 1.1840 and 1.1810."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After expecting EUR to trade in a range of 1.1650/1.1790 for more than a week, we highlighted yesterday (16 Sep, spot at 1.1765) that 'upward momentum is starting to build, and the odds of EUR breaking above 1.1790 are increasing and will continue to increase as long as EUR holds above 1.1715 (‘strong support’ level).' We also highlighted that 'a clear break above 1.1790 will shift the focus to 1.1830.' While the adjustment to our view was timely, we did not anticipate EUR would take off and break above both 1.1790 and 1.1830, as it soared to a high of 1.1878. Having surpassed the strong resistance levels, the is risk for EUR to continue to rise. The level to watch is 1.1955. We will maintain our positive stance as long as EUR holds above 1.1760 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1715 yesterday)."