EUR/USD firms as Eurozone PMI surprises higher – BBH

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

EUR/USD had a kneejerk upswing to near 1.1630 before stabilizing lower around 1.1610. Eurozone economic activity unexpectedly gains traction in October driven by the services sector and Germany, BBH FX analysts report.

ECB seen done easing as Fed outlook softens

"The composite PMI overshot expectations in October, rising to a 17-month high at 52.2 (consensus: 51.1) vs. 51.2 in September. The services PMI increased to a 14-month high at 52.6 (consensus: 51.2) vs. 51.3 in September while the manufacturing PMI rose to a 2-month high at 50.0 (consensus: 49.8) vs. 49.8 in September."

"The regional breakdown showed the German composite PMI up to a 29-month high at 53.8 (consensus: 51.5) vs. 52.0 in September reflecting the sharpest increase in service sector business activity for almost two-and-a-half years. In contrast, France’s composite PMI plunge to an 8-month low at 46.8 (consensus: 48.4) vs. 48.1 in September."

"The swaps market continues to price-in about 50% odds that the ECB delivers one more 25bps cut in the next 12 months and the policy rate to bottom at 1.75%. We think the ECB is done easing while the risk is the Fed cuts rates more than is currently priced-in (117bps in the next 12 months). Bottom line: relative ECB/Fed policy stance underpins the uptrend in EUR/USD."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD trades near daily lows on persistent US Dollar strength

GBP/USD lost traction and declined toward 1.3150 following a short-lasting recovery attempt to the 1.3200 region in the early European session. The pair trades near its low early in the American session as US PCE inflation data came in line with expectations.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1350 after US PCE inflation

EUR/USD struggles to stage a rebound and trades in negative territory below 1.1350 on Thursday. The cautious market stance helps the US Dollar hold its ground and weighs on the pair as market participants assess the US PCE inflation report for May.

Gold struggles to stabilize above $4,000

Gold remains on the back foot, trading around $4,000 on Thursday. The commodity sticks to its bearish bias for the third straight day, and remains close to the lowest level since November 2025, touched on Wednesday.

Bitcoin tests $60,000 as whales sell off – Aave and Jupiter show resilience

The broader cryptocurrency market remains under intense selling pressure, with Bitcoin back at $60,000 for the third time this year. On-chain data shows selling pressure from large-wallet investors, commonly referred to as whales, while total liquidations hit nearly $1 billion in 24 hours.

Bitcoin nears make-or-break level ahead of US PCE data

Bitcoin recovers slightly, trading at $61,700 after reaching a new yearly low of $59,103 and a 21-month low the previous day. This bearish price action is supported by the ongoing institutional sell-off, which recorded an outflow of over $469 million on Wednesday.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.