EUR/USD faces fierce resistance and has room to fall ahead of the ECB – Confluence Detector

Yohay Elam FXStreet

EUR/USD is trading around 1.10 as tension mounts ahead of the all-important decision of the European Central Bank. Will Draghi drag the euro down or disappoint high expectations and send it higher? The world's most popular currency pair is poorly-positioned ahead of the event.

The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that EUR/USD is trading below a dense cluster of technical levels between 1.1019 to 1.1030. The area includes the Simple Moving Average 10-4h, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month, the Bollinger Band 1h-Upper, Fibonacci 38.2% one-week, the BB 15min-Upper, and the SMA 100-15m, and more.

Further up, the next hurdle awaits at 1.1070, which is the convergence of the BB 4h-Upper and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month.

Next, 1.1105 is the next cap, where the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day and the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 1 meet the price.

Looking down, weak support awaits at 1.0990, which is the confluence of the previous daily low and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week.

Lower, some support awaits at 1.0962, which is the previous monthly low.

Even lower, the downside target is 1.0885, which is where the Pivot Point one-month Support 1 hits the price.

Here is how it looks on the tool:

EUR USD September 12 2019 technical confluence

Confluence Detector

The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas.

Learn more about Technical Confluence

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

GBP/USD: Gains remains capped below 1.3400

GBP/USD trades in positive territory, with the upside capped below 1.3400 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar extends weakness following a weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which fades Fed rate hike expectations.

EUR/USD stays firm around 1.1450 amid weaker US Dollar

EUR/USD remains on the front foot at around 1.1450 in European trading on Friday. The pair seems poised to register gains for the first time in three weeks as receding US Federal Reserve rate hike bets keep the US Dollar under pressure.

Gold stays on track to snap four-week losing streak amid fading Fed hike bets, weak USD

Gold retains its bullish bias for the third straight day and traders near a one-and-a-half-week high during the first half of the European session. The precious metal seems poised to register gains for the first time in five weeks, with bulls still awaiting a move beyond the $4,200 mark before positioning for an extension of this week's recovery from the lowest level since November 2025.

Hyperliquid gears up for a higher leg as bullish momentum resurfaces

Hyperliquid (HYPE) extends gains above $66 maintaining a long-term upward trend supported by its rising 50-day EMA around $60. Retail demand for HYPE rises in the near term, with Open Interest up around 5% over 24 hours as funding rates hold above zero, while institutional demand remains muted so far this week.

Economics week ahead

Market attention turns to next week's FOMC minutes for any signs of what could shift a divided Committee from a hold toward rate hikes. The dot plot from the last meeting made clear that policymakers are split on whether rate hikes are warranted, but with forward guidance getting tamped down under Chair Warsh, the Fed's reaction function remains uncertain in terms of what exactly would build broader support for more restrictive policy.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.