EUR/USD: Expected to trade in a 1.0465/1.0515 range – UOB Group

Brief advance did not result in a significant increase in momentum; Euro (EUR) is expected to trade in a 1.0465/1.0515 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, unless EUR breaks and holds above 1.0530 soon, the likelihood of it rising further will diminish, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The likelihood of EUR rising further set to diminish

24-HOUR VIEW: " Following EUR’s rise to 1.0519 on Tuesday, we indicated yesterday that, 'while there is a chance for EUR to rise above the major resistance at 1.0530, it is unclear whether it can maintain a foothold above this level.' We pointed out, 'the next major at 1.0560 is unlikely to come into view.' The subsequent price movements did not quite turn out as we expected. EUR popped to a high of 1.0528 and then pulled back to close at 1.0483, lower by 0.29%. The brief advance did not result in a significant increase in momentum. Today, we expect EUR to trade in a range, likely between 1.0465 and 1.0515."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Two days ago (25 Feb, spot at 1.0460), we noted that 'upward momentum has slowed somewhat.' However, we highlighted that 'only a breach of 1.0425 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR is not ready to rise above 1.0530.' Yesterday, EUR tested the 1.0530 level for the second time this week, rising briefly to 1.0528. Upward momentum is continuing to slow. Unless EUR breaks and holds above 1.0530 within these 1-2 days, the likelihood of it rising further will diminish. Conversely, a breach of 1.0440 (‘strong support’ previously at 1.0425) would suggest that EUR has entered a range trading phase."