EUR/USD edges higher to mid-1.1600s; looks to US PCE Price Index for fresh impetus
- EUR/USD regains some positive traction following the overnight pullback from a multi-week top.
- The divergent Fed-ECB policy outlooks act as a tailwind for spot prices and favor bullish traders.
- The market focus remains glued to the release of the US PCE Price Index, due later this Friday.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday and recovers a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the 1.1680 region, or the highest level since October 17. Spot prices currently trade around mid-1.1600s and remain on track to register gains for the second straight week.
Despite the upbeat US labor market reports released on Thursday, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a six-week low amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. In fact, traders are now pricing in around an 85% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs again next week. This, along with the underlying bullish sentiment, is seen undermining the Greenback's relative safe-haven status and acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.
The shared currency, on the other hand, continues to draw support from the growing acceptance that the European Central Bank (ECB) is done cutting interest rates. The expectations were reaffirmed by ECB President Christine Lagarde's comment earlier this week, saying that the central bank expects inflation to stay near its 2% goal in the coming months. This reinforces the argument for the policy hold, which backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the EUR/USD pair.
Even from a technical perspective, the emergence of fresh buying on Friday validates this week's breakout through and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and reaffirms the positive outlook. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The crucial data might provide cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which should will provide a fresh impetus to the buck and the EUR/USD pair.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.50% | -0.72% | -0.81% | -0.57% | -1.30% | -0.80% | -0.23% | |
| EUR | 0.50% | -0.22% | -0.33% | -0.07% | -0.79% | -0.30% | 0.27% | |
| GBP | 0.72% | 0.22% | -0.10% | 0.15% | -0.57% | -0.09% | 0.49% | |
| JPY | 0.81% | 0.33% | 0.10% | 0.24% | -0.49% | 0.00% | 0.58% | |
| CAD | 0.57% | 0.07% | -0.15% | -0.24% | -0.74% | -0.26% | 0.34% | |
| AUD | 1.30% | 0.79% | 0.57% | 0.49% | 0.74% | 0.49% | 1.08% | |
| NZD | 0.80% | 0.30% | 0.09% | -0.00% | 0.26% | -0.49% | 0.58% | |
| CHF | 0.23% | -0.27% | -0.49% | -0.58% | -0.34% | -1.08% | -0.58% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
