EUR/USD eased from 1.0880 on Monday as looming rate differential weighs


  • EUR/USD drifts down as Greenback bids mix with ECB cut expectations.
  • Fedspeak talks down Fed cut hopes, but stubborn markets continue to hope.
  • ECB geared for a summer rate cut, but mismatched talking points muddy the waters.

EUR/USD eased back from 1.0880 on Monday as talking points from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials weighed on otherwise quiet market flows. Broader markets are keenly anxious for signs of a rate cut from the Fed, but central planners continue to force down expectations with a tricky inflation outlook hobbling the Fed’s options on rate moves.

Read more: Fed officials lean into cautious stance as inflation concerns weigh on central planners

Tuesday promises more of the same, with a raft of Fed officials due to provide speeches throughout the day, while European traders will be looking ahead to an appearance from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. European Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are due later in the week, with US Home Sales, PMIs, and Durable Goods Orders all due in the back half of the trading week.

ECB’s Kazaks: It's quite likely June will be when we start to cut rates

Market expectations of an ECB rate cut are on the high side on Monday after the ECB’s Martins Kazaks declared that June would be a good time to begin cutting rates. The Euro is easing against firmer currencies as investors price in an increasing likelihood of a widening differential between the EUR and the USD.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD has fallen back from last week’s peak near 1.0895, but it is still staunchly bullish in the near term. The pair holds above the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0826.

EUR/USD pushed into the bullish side of the 200-day EMA near the 1.0800 handle last week, but stalled progress could pull the pair back down to the last swing low near 1.0600.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.0859
Today Daily Change -0.0010
Today Daily Change % -0.09
Today daily open 1.0869
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.0756
Daily SMA50 1.0783
Daily SMA100 1.082
Daily SMA200 1.0789
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.0878
Previous Daily Low 1.0836
Previous Weekly High 1.0895
Previous Weekly Low 1.0766
Previous Monthly High 1.0885
Previous Monthly Low 1.0601
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0862
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0852
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0844
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0818
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0801
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0886
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0904
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0929

 

 

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