EUR/USD holds gains as slacked US labor market keeps US Dollar on backfoot

EUR/USD exhibits strength as growing speculation for Fed rate cuts in September weighs on the US Dollar.
US labor market conditions appear to have lost momentum.
Unexpected progress by the left-wing in French elections has increased uncertainty over the economy’s fiscal outlook.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

EUR/USD stabilizes above the round-level support of 1.0800 in Monday’s American session. The major currency pair remains firm as the US Dollar (USD) is under pressure due to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start lowering interest rates at the September meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, hovers near a three-week low around 104.85.

Market expectations for Fed interest rate cut bets in September have increased further amid evidence that the United States (US) labor market is losing momentum. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June pointed to a slowdown in labor demand as revised estimates showed that the number of individuals hired in April and May was lower by 110K than previously estimated. Also, the Unemployment Rate surprisingly rose to 4.1% from the consensus and the former release of 4.0%.

Also, upside risks to inflation ease as wage growth momentum appears to have slowed in June. The US NFP report showed that Average Hourly Earnings, a measure of wage growth, declined expectedly on a monthly and annual basis.

Cooling labor market strength favors early Fed rate cut bets. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing data shows that the probability of rate cuts in September has increased to 75.8% from 64% a week ago.

Going forward, investors will keenly focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June, which will be published on Thursday. Investors will pay close attention to inflation to know whether the disinflation process, which paused in the first quarter, has resumed.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains despite uncertainty over France's fiscal policy outlook

EUR/USD clings to gains even though the Euro’s outlook appears uncertain as exit polls show that a coalition government will form in the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, France. Polls showed that the left wing, also known as the New Popular Front, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, unexpectedly gained the upper hand with President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance and Marine Le Pen-led far-right National Rally as runner-ups.
The absence of any party gaining an outright majority has deepened uncertainty over France’s fiscal outlook. This would force the Centralist Alliance to enter into severe negotiations with the Left Wing to distribute new ministries and the election of a new Prime Minister. Meanwhile, Jean-Luc Mélenchon proposed that French PM Macron should resign and the mandate should be given to the left wing to manage the economy.
On the monetary policy front, deepening risks of inflation remaining sticky have diminished expectations about the European Central Bank (ECB) delivering subsequent rate cuts. ECB officials are scheduled to meet on July 18 to make decisions on interest rates.
Preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) grew steadily by 2.9% year-on-year in June as service inflation remained sticky at 4.1%. In the ECB Forum on Central Banking at Sintra, Portugal, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “The disinflationary path is going to continue, but we need to be particularly attentive to services.”

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD gains ground above all short-to-long-term EMAs

EUR/USD gains ground above 1.0800. The major currency pair strengthens after stabilizing above the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which trade around 1.0750 and 1.0770, respectively. The overall trend of the shared currency pair has also strengthened as it has jumped above the 200-day EMA, which trades around 1.0800.

The Symmetrical Triangle formation on the daily timeframe exhibits a sharp volatility contraction, which indicates low volume and narrow ticks.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches 60.00. Should the bullish momentum be triggered if it breaks above 60.00?

Economic Indicator

Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.

GBP/USD weakens below 1.3250 as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigns

The GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3245 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom continues to weigh on the British Pound against the US Dollar. The preliminary readings of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index from both the US and the UK are due later on Tuesday.

EUR/USD moves little amid market caution on ongoing US-Iran talks

EUR/USD steadies after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair remains locked in a tight range as traders closely monitor diplomatic developments surrounding ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.

Gold defends $4,100, but for how long?

Gold is back in the red early Tuesday, having faced rejection once again at $4,200. The US Dollar holds at yearly highs amid hawkish Fed outlook, scepticism over US-Iran deal progress. Gold is primed to attack $4,100 as the daily technical setup remains in favor of sellers.

Bitcoin holds steady as ETF outflows decline – DEXE and TIA extend gains

Bitcoin hovers above $64,000 at press time on Tuesday, holding steady after a roughly 4% drop last week. Data shows that institutional outflows are easing, suggesting broader market recovery potential, while DeXe and Celestia have emerged as frontrunners over the last 24 hours.

Are American consumers actually “resilient“?

A common label gets placed upon American buyers: resilient. Just last week, Marianne Lake, the CEO of Consumer and Community Banking — and a member of the JPMorganChase Operating Committee — affirmed this sentiment. While she did note some weariness regarding future inflation’s effect on consumers, she reiterated the common adjective: resilient.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.