EUR/USD climbs to 1.1700 as ECB holds steady, US CPI reinforces Fed cut bets
The Euro (EUR) reverses sharply against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, snapping a two-day losing streak and climbing back above the 1.1700 mark as traders digest the European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement and US inflation data.
The ECB maintained its key policy rates, including the Main Refinancing Rate at 2.15% and the Deposit Facility Rate at 2.00%, aligning with market expectations. The accompanying statement emphasized that inflation is currently around the 2% target, while the outlook remains “broadly unchanged.”
- The ECB now sees core inflation at 2.4% in 2025, before easing to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain persistent in the medium term.
- On the growth front, the central bank lowered its 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection to 1.0%, while keeping the 2027 forecast unchanged at 1.3%, signaling a more cautious stance on the recovery.
- Policymakers reaffirmed that future interest rate decisions will be data-dependent, based on the evolving inflation outlook, underlying dynamics, and incoming macroeconomic and financial data.
In the US, the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in broadly in line with expectations, though the monthly headline figure ticked higher. Headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM, up from July’s 0.2% and slightly above the 0.3% consensus. On a yearly basis, headline inflation rose to 2.9% from 2.7%, matching market forecasts. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, held steady at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY, matching forecasts.
With core inflation holding steady and headline inflation showing a modest uptick, the report gave a mixed signal on US inflation trends. Markets reacted calmly to the report, with Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate-cut expectations firming slightly. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to 94%, up from 90% before the release. Traders also continue to fully price in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | 0.05% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.16% | 0.06% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.19% | 0.07% | 0.13% | 0.12% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.14% | -0.00% | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.30% | -0.19% | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.18% | -0.03% | 0.06% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.02% | 0.10% | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.06% | -0.12% | -0.07% | 0.09% | -0.06% | 0.01% | -0.18% | |
| CHF | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.25% | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Vishal Chaturvedi
FXStreet
I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.
