EUR/USD churns chart paper but makes little progress ahead of Wednesday’s German CPI inflation

EUR/USD rose to an intraday high near 1.0890 on Tuesday before market flows dragged the pair back down to familiar levels near 1.0860, and the pair is holding on-balance as Euro traders head into a fresh print of German Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Key US data hides just around the corner with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation due on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

German CPI inflation in May is expected to ease to 0.2% MoM in May, down from the previous 0.5% as investors hope CPI inflation in key European economies will turn around and continue to ease in time to push the European Central Bank (ECB) into a quarter-point cut at the central bank’s upcoming rate call in June.

US investors have been fighting an uphill battle trying to time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver a first rate cut. Back in December, markets had priced in upwards of six cuts of at least 25 basis points apiece, with the first quarter-point-minimum cut expected in March. Today, rate markets are pricing in roughly-even odds of a quarter-point cut to come in September, with hopes of two total cuts in 2024 withering on the vine.

US Annualized Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slated for Thursday is forecast to ease to 1.3% from the previous 1.6%. Friday’s US PCE Price Index inflation on Friday is expected to hold steady at 0.3% MoM.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD is cycling in familiar technical congestion, but a hidden bullish divergence of the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) implies the pair could be primed for a push higher if bidders are able to springboard off of the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average at 1.0844.

However, the 200-day EMA at 1.0804 is acting as a price magnet, threatening to pull the pair down, and daily candlesticks are drifting into familiar middle territory. The daily MACD is also easing back into directionless territory.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart