|

EUR/USD challenges 1.2300 ahead of US Payrolls

  • The pair keeps the tight range around the 1.2300 handle on Friday.
  • Demand for EUR stays subdued as markets digest Thursday’s ECB.
  • US labour market figures due next with wage inflation in centre stage.

EUR/USD remains under pressure at the end of the week in the 1.2300 neighbourhood, all amidst a renewed bid tone around the greenback as market participants continue to digest yesterday’s cautious tone from the ECB.

EUR/USD now looks to US docket

The pair stays under downside pressure on Friday following the ECB meeting, where the central bank dropped its easing bias although it remains somewhat concerned over the absence of upside traction in inflation.

The greenback, instead, seems to have recovered the smile and is now looking to consolidate the breakout of the critical 90.00 milestone, against a backdrop of shrinking geopolitical risks and with US tariffs already in the rear-view mirror.

In fact, President Trump has agreed to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, probably in May. The news adds optimism to the recently announced intentions of denuclearization by North Korea.

Nothing worth mentioning on the data front in the euro area, leaving all the attention to the publication of US Non-farm Payrolls for the month of February, expected at 200K. Furthermore, Average Hourly Earnings will also be in centre stage in light of the strong rebound seen in January.

Additionally, Boston Fed E.Rosengren (2019 voter, dovish) and Chicago Fed C.Evans (2019 voter, centrist) will also speak later in the day.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.15% at 1.2293 and a break below 1.2240 (55-day sma) would target 1.2206 (low Feb.9) en route to 1.2165 (low Jan.18). On the upside, the next hurdle emerges at 1.2446 (high Mar.8) seconded by 1.2537 (high Jan.25) and then 1.2557 (2018 high Feb.18).

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

More from Pablo Piovano
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD tumbles to three-day lows around 1.3420

GBP/USD comes under extra selling pressure and revisits the area of multi-day lows near 1.3420 in quite a bearish start to the week. Cable’s decline comes amid the firmer Greenback as investors continue to assess developments in the US-Iran conflict. Moving forward, attention will turn to the UK employment report on Tuesday.


EUR/USD meets some initial contention around 1.1400

EUR/USD keeps the bearish bias well in place, slipping back toward the 1.1400 region, where some initial support appears to have turned up. The auspicious start to the week of the US Dollar has kept the risk complex under pressure as investors has continued to closely follow developments from the Middle East conflict. The release of the ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Euroland and Germany are next on tap on the domestic calendar.

Gold holds above $4,000 as inflation-driven Fed hike bets cap upside

Gold holds steady above $4,000 during the Asian session on Tuesday, though the upside potential seems limited. Inflation fears stemming from elevated oil prices reaffirm bets for higher US interest rates, which, along with an escalation in the Middle East war, continue to underpin the safe-haven US Dollar. This should act as a headwind for the non-yielding bullion, warranting caution for bullish traders before positioning for any meaningful gains.

Bitcoin climbs above $65K as ETF flows recover despite rising macro risks
Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed above $65,000 on Monday as improving onchain activity, recovering US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and stabilizing derivatives point to a more balanced market, according to Glassnode.
Here's where the Canadian Dollar is headed next: 4 bearish scenarios and a bullish one
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has ridden a volatile first half of the year, with Oil prices surging and then falling as markets danced to the Middle East’s tune. Neither the Bank of Canada nor the Federal Reserve has changed rates so far this year, and the USD/CAD's next move may depend on which of the two banks fails to deliver what markets expect.
US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.