EUR/USD: Bulls need a weak US Retail Sales data

  • EUR/USD looks south as coronavirus growth weakens risk appetite. 
  • The US-German bond yield spreads are rising in a USD-positive manner. 
  • A big miss on US Retail Sales is needed to put a floor under EUR/USD. 

EUR/USD has declined by 1% so far this week and looks set to extend losses unless the US data disappoints expectations. In that case, the dollar may face selling pressure, putting a floor under the currency pair. 

Coronavirus concerns weigh

Fears that the Eurozone economy would be hit hard by the coronavirus resurgence is pushing the US-German yield differentials higher and weighing over the common currency. 

The 10-year spread has risen to 134.4 basis points, the highest level since March. The two-year yield differential, which is more sensitive to short-term interest rate and inflation expectations, is also widening in a USD-positive manner. 

As such, the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair appears to be on the downside. 

Focus on US data

As represented by Retail Sales, consumer spending in the world's largest economy is expected to have risen by 0.7% month-on-month in September following August's 0.6% rise. 

A weaker-than-expected data will likely revive concerns regarding the US economy's health and trigger a broad-based decline in the dollar – more so, as Washington continues to remain deadlocked over a new round of fiscal stimulus. 

The focus will also be on the US Industrial Production and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data due for release later today. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Trade Balance and Consumer Price Index, due at 09:00, may not have a big impact on the EUR pairs. At press time, the pair is trading largely unchanged on the day near 1.17.

Technical levels


Today last price 1.1703
Today Daily Change -0.0005
Today Daily Change % -0.04
Today daily open 1.1708
Daily SMA20 1.1738
Daily SMA50 1.1795
Daily SMA100 1.1597
Daily SMA200 1.1278
Previous Daily High 1.1758
Previous Daily Low 1.1688
Previous Weekly High 1.1831
Previous Weekly Low 1.1706
Previous Monthly High 1.2011
Previous Monthly Low 1.1612
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1715
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1731
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1679
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1649
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.1609
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1748
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1787
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1817



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD bounces to stabilize around 1.1750

Fears keep ruling the financial boards as rising COVID-19 cases lead to fresh lockdowns across the Union, Germany included. Dollar correcting extreme overbought conditions.


GBP/USD falls below 1.30 amid fears of a UK lockdown, Brexit impasse

GBP/USD has dropped below 1.30 as the British government mulls a new lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus. The pound is also pressured by the Brexit impasse.


XAU/USD hits fresh monthly lows near $1,870 and remains vulnerable

Gold is falling sharply and is down almost two percent, even after trimming losses. XAU/USD tumbled to $1,868/oz reaching the lowest level since late-September.

Gold News

Bank of Canada leaves policy rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected

In a widely expected decision, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced on Wednesday that it left its key rate unchanged at 0.25% following its October policy meeting.

Read more

WTI bounces off lows near $37.00/bbl post-EIA

Prices of the WTI remain on the defensive albeit off lows. Demand concerns dragged prices to 3-week lows near $37.00. EIA reported an unexpected 4.3 mb build during last week.

Oil News