EUR/USD: Bulls need a convincing break above 1.17

Repeated rejection above 1.17 is a cause for concern for the EUR bulls.
A combination of increased risk appetite and a pullback in the treasury yields could yield much-needed break above 1.17.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

For EUR/USD, 1.17 holds the key to the continuation of the bull run from the Aug. 15 low of 1.1301.

At press time, the pair is trading at 1.1684, having faced rejection above 1.17 three times in the last four trading days. As a result, the immediate bullish outlook is likely neutralized.

The failure to scale the psychological level of 1.17 in a convincing manner is likely associated with the rising Treasury yields and the widening US-De (German) two-year yield spread. As of writing, the 10-year treasury yield is trading 3.06 percent, having clocked a two-month high of 3.10 percent yesterday. Meanwhile, the two-year US-DE (German) yield spread is seen at 333 basis points, the highest level since 1989.

The common currency could find acceptance above 1.17 if the spread rolls over in favor of the bears. That could happen in the next day or two as the 10-year treasury yield created a doji candle yesterday, signaling a bullish exhaustion.

Further, the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are looking north, indicating easing concerns about the trade war. As a result, the equity markets could pick up a bid and help the EUR/USD secure a daily close above 1.17.

However, if the 10-year treasury yield continues to rise, then a close above 1.17 will likely remain elusive.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

Resistance: 1.1724 (Sept. 18 high), 1.1791 (July 9 high), 1.1852 (June 14 high)

Support: 1.1664 (5-day moving average), 1.1640 (200-hour moving average), 1.16 (psychological support)

	TREND INDEX	OB/OS INDEX	VOLATILY INDEX
15M	Bearish	Neutral	Shrinking
1H	Bullish	Neutral	Low
4H	Bullish	Neutral	Shrinking
1D	Bearish	Neutral	Low
1W	Bullish	Neutral	Low
Updated Sep 20, 04:00 GMT

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

AUD/USD edges higher above 0.7050 as hot CPI lifts RBA rate hike odds

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7055 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar edges higher against the US Dollar as hotter inflation data bolsters expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes. The US September Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report will be in the spotlight later on Thursday.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 as USD stalls the post-FOMC corrective slide

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday, climbing back above 158.00 as the US Dollar reverses part of the post-FOMC pullback from a two-week high. Bulls, however, await key US macro data – the Advance Q3 GDP and the PCE Price Index – before positioning for further gains. Focus will then shift to the crucial BoJ policy update on Friday amid firming expectations for a December rate hike.

Gold weakens further below $4,050 amid Fed rate hike bets and Iran risks

Gold sticks to intraday losses below the $4,050 level heading into the European session ,and for now seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to the weekly top set the previous day. The US Dollar attracts fresh buyers after Wednesday's post-FOMC corrective slide from a two-week high and is seen as a key factor weighing on the precious metal.

Pi Network risks another lower leg as the broader crypto market slips

Pi Network is trading in the red on Thursday, retreating toward a near-term support around $0.0740. The Fear and Greed Index declines to 43 on Thursday, while total liquidations exceed $350 million over the last 24 hours, suggesting a deterioration in investors' risk appetite and a sell-side bias. The technical outlook for PI is bearish, with selling pressure building.

Fed's recap: A cautious hold with a clear warning on inflation

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its policy rate steady at 3.75%-4.00%, but it wasn’t a unanimous decision. Among two officials who wanted a 25-basis-point hike were Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, while Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed would use the coming flow of information to decide whether further action is needed. The statement presented a resilient economy.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.