• EUR/USD has turned to the downside following a resurgence in the greenback and US markets now that the US elections are out of the way and traders get set for the FOMC. 
  • EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1448 from a high of 1.1499 and a low of 1.1394.

EUR/USD had been sliding since the markets digested the results of the midterms while the DXY drifts back some ground lost. DXY has drifted higher from 95.68 to a high of 96.09 (still down from 96.68 pre-election highs) while US stock prices have been even more impressive. The DJIA is currently up 1.39%, the S&P 1.45% and NASDAQ 1.91%. 

As expected, Republicans kept the Senate and Democrats took the House. However, from here, analysts at ANZ explained that the House is likely to pressure Trump with subpoenas (taxes, commercial dealings) to which the President has pledged to fight back with investigations against leakers.

Key opinions from the analysts:

  • "Reform on healthcare, taxes and immigration are likely to enter gridlock. Some commentators note that a bi-partisan deal on infrastructure is still possible. However, there will be clear differences in views on how to fund it."
  • "Trump maintains control over foreign policy and is likely to step up pressure on China, implying external risks to growth and ongoing market volatility."
  • "The Fed is likely to be breathing a sigh of relief as the fiscal sugar rush looks poised to fade."
  • "Overall, the market is taking the news in its stride with equities moving higher, USD being sold, and the yield curve flattening. Corporate America has two years of gridlock which reduces uncertainty and should ease investment decisions."

Meanwhile, we had some EZ data that was largely ignored due to the election results and EZ Sep Retail Sales for YY arrived at 0.8% vs the 0.7% forecasted and 1.8% prior that was revised to 2.2%. We also had German Sep Industrial Output MM come in at 0.2%, vs 0.1% forecasted and -0.3% prior revised to 0.1%. 

FOMC outlook

Markets will now get set for the FOMC. However, the meeting is unlikely an immediate market mover.  The fed funds target rate (FFTR) is expected to be left unchanged and instead, markets have priced in a December hike. Instead, markets are wondering what the outlook is for 2019 and beyond. The dollar has suffered some downside volatility in anticipation that the Fed will soon arrive at their neutral target of 3% and will, therefore, terminate their current path of tightening in 2020. Further signals that the Fed is coming to the end of its tightening path could weigh on the greenback and lift EUR/USD. However, no material changes to the statement leaves the market expecting the Fed to be on autopilot, and thus reprices toward the dots which could be a bullish outcome for the dollar and weigh on EUR/USD that is already finding tough resistance at the 1.15 handle. 

EUR/USD levels

Bulls need to close above 1.1473, as the 6th Nov highs, and then make ground on the 1.15 handle for a look in at the 61.8% retreacment Fibo of  1.1531 and 15th Oct high - 31 Oct low. A break back to 1.1625 will neutralise the chart where bulls would look to continue towards the 1.18 handle. On the flip side, analysts at Commerzbank explained that below 1.1300, we have a pivot line back to 2015 which is located at 1.1261 this week. "While this holds the downside scope for recovery remains longer term. This guards the 61.8% retracement at 1.1185."

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