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EUR/USD bounces off multi-month lows, upsides seems limited

  • A modest USD pullback assisted EUR/USD to stage a modest bounce from multi-month lows.
  • Rising bets for an earlier Fed taper, rallying US bond yields should act as a tailwind for the USD.
  • COVID-19 jitters might further underpin the safe-haven USD and cap the upside for the major.

The EUR/USD pair managed to rebound around 20-25 pips from four-month lows, albeit lacked any follow-through buying. The pair was last seen trading with modest gains, around the 1.1765 region heading into the European session.

The pair found some support near the 1.1740 region and for now, seems to have stalled its post-NFP downfall to the lowest level since April 5. The uptick was exclusively sponsored by a modest US dollar pullback from two-week tops, though any meaningful recovery remains elusive.

Friday's blockbuster US jobs report fueled speculations that the Fed could start tapering its asset purchases later this year and forced investors to bring forward the likely timing for the Fed policy tightening. This was evident from the ongoing move up in the US Treasury bond yields.

In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond jumped back above the 1.30% threshold. Apart from this, concerns about the economic fallout from the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus might act as a tailwind for the USD and cap the upside for the EUR/USD pair.

Hence, the attempted recovery could be solely attributed to some intraday short-covering move, which runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases on Monday, the EUR/USD pair remains at the mercy of the USD price dynamics.

Later during the early North American session, traders might take cues from scheduled speeches by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. This, along with the broader market risk sentiment, might produce some trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair.

Technical levels to watch

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price1.1764
Today Daily Change0.0001
Today Daily Change %0.01
Today daily open1.1763
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.182
Daily SMA501.1929
Daily SMA1001.1968
Daily SMA2001.2009
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.1836
Previous Daily Low1.1755
Previous Weekly High1.19
Previous Weekly Low1.1755
Previous Monthly High1.1909
Previous Monthly Low1.1752
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.1785
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.1805
Daily Pivot Point S11.1733
Daily Pivot Point S21.1703
Daily Pivot Point S31.1652
Daily Pivot Point R11.1814
Daily Pivot Point R21.1865
Daily Pivot Point R31.1895

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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