EUR/SEK can drift down to the 11.15 area – ING

Even though EUR/USD is range-bound, we are starting to see some decent moves lower in EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

EUR/NOK is set to test and possibly break 11.50

"In EUR/SEK, two-year swap differentials have moved in favour of the krona as the ECB is priced for another 88bp of easing this year, while the Riksbank is barely expected to cut once. But the story seems larger than rate differentials, and like its CEE peers, the krona is shaking off the rise in gas prices." 

"This resilience may be driven by growing optimism about a potential ceasefire deal in Ukraine. Expectations are that the US will reveal more of its plans at a Munich security conference this weekend – although any breakthrough with Russia would be a major surprise and is not priced in FX markets."

"For now, however, EUR/SEK can drift down to the 11.15 area. And Norway, benefiting hugely from the rise in energy prices, can see EUR/NOK test and possibly break 11.50."

(This story was corrected on February 11 at 10:05 to say "ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes" instead of "UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.")