|

EUR: Risk premium here to stay – ING

EUR/USD appears to have found a short-term anchor at the 1.0300 handle., ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Expect EUR/USD stability around 1.0300

"That is a level that embeds a 2.5-3% risk premium (i.e. undervaluation), which we suspect will not be materially trimmed until more clarity on Trump’s protectionism policy emerges. That said, that stretched valuation and the latest speculative net short EUR/USD positioning at 11% of open interest (CFTC data) makes us lean against another big leg lower in the pair. That, in fact, may require some big USD-positive headlines from Trump on Monday."

"There has been no shift to a less dovish tone by the European Central Bank from the already dovish December meeting (the minutes were released yesterday), even after a tick higher in inflation; and we can expect monetary policy to remain a net negative factor for the euro at least in the coming weeks. We expect EUR/USD stability around 1.0300 today."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD struggles for direction amid USD gains

EUR/USD is trimming part of its earlier gains, coming under some mild downside pressure near 1.1730 as the US Dollar edges higher. Markets are still digesting the Fed’s latest rate decision, while also looking ahead to more commentary from Fed officials in the sessions ahead.

GBP/USD drops to daily lows near 1.3360

Disappointing UK data weighed on the Sterling towards the end of the week, triggering a pullback in GBP/USD to fresh daily lows near 1.3360. Looking ahead, the next key event across the Channel is the BoE meeting on December 18.

Gold losses momentum, challenges $4,300

Gold now gives away some gains and disputes the key $4,300 zone per troy ounce following earlier multi-week highs. The move is being driven by expectations that the Fed will deliver further rate cuts next year, with the yellow metal climbing despite a firmer Greenback and rising US Treasury yields across the board.

Litecoin Price Forecast: LTC struggles to extend gains, bullish bets at risk

Litecoin (LTC) price steadies above $80 at press time on Friday, following a reversal from the $87 resistance level on Wednesday. Derivatives data suggests a bullish positional buildup while the LTC futures Open Interest declines, flashing a long squeeze risk.

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Aave Price Forecast: AAVE primed for breakout as bullish signals strengthen

Aave (AAVE) price is trading above $204 at the time of writing on Friday and approaching the upper boundary of its descending parallel channel; a breakout from this structure would favor the bulls.