Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Jakob Christensen expects the Polish Zloty to depreciate towards the 4.32 area vs. the single currency in the near term.
“The fall in EUR/PLN has stalled around 4.30, a bit lower than our 1M forecast made in mid-February. The main factors for a halt to PLN strength versus the EUR have been the relative dovish NBP, renewed concerns about Poland’s EU relations and general EUR strength following last week’s relatively hawkish ECB meeting”.
“We expect further weakness near term relating to the French presidential elections. Our short-term (ST) model also suggests that EUR/PLN is somewhat oversold with a fair value of 4.36. Longer term, we see a possibly more hawkish NBP as positive for the PLN. Our forecast for EUR/PLN is 4.32 in 1M and 4.30 in 3M, falling to 4.26 in 6M and 4.22 in 12M, respectively”.
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