EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Euro trades above 170.00 near yearly highs

EUR/JPY slips slightly but remains above 170.00, near its highest level since July 2024.
Bullish trend intact above Ichimoku Cloud, RSI nears overbought zone.
A break above 171.09 would open the path to the psychological resistance at 172.00.
A drop below 170.00 could trigger a pullback toward 169.25 or the July swing low at 168.45.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

EUR/JPY slips slightly on Friday but remains close to the year-to-date high of 170.61 reached on Thursday. At the time of writing, the cross is trading at 170.19, down 0.11% in the day, amid a risk-off environment as US equity futures tumble amid thin volume trading, with US markets closed for Independence Day.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The upside path is intact, after the Japanese Yen rallied during the first two months of the second half of 2024, sending the EUR/JPY from around 175.42 to 154.39. Since then, the pair enjoyed a recovery, paving the way for higher prices to be tested.

Momentum, although slightly overbought as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is bullish. It is worth noting that the EUR/JPY pair has been climbing steadily, after crossing above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) on March 12.

The first key resistance would be the July 23, 2024, daily high at 171.09. A breach of the latter would expose July 19, 2024, high at 171.87, before testing the 172.00 mark. Conversely, if EUR/JPY drops below 170.00, a move towards the Tenkan-sen at 169.25 is likely. Further downside is seen at 168.45, the July 1 swing low.

EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily

(This story was corrected on July 4 at 16:29 GMT to clarify in the headline, the first bullet point and the first paragraph that the pair didn't reach a year-to-date high on Friday)

Euro PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.40%	0.49%	0.13%	-0.60%	-0.17%	0.02%	-0.64%
EUR	0.40%		0.86%	0.53%	-0.21%	0.20%	0.43%	-0.25%
GBP	-0.49%	-0.86%		-0.49%	-1.05%	-0.66%	-0.43%	-1.10%
JPY	-0.13%	-0.53%	0.49%		-0.74%	-0.25%	-0.07%	-0.72%
CAD	0.60%	0.21%	1.05%	0.74%		0.38%	0.63%	-0.04%
AUD	0.17%	-0.20%	0.66%	0.25%	-0.38%		0.21%	-0.44%
NZD	-0.02%	-0.43%	0.43%	0.07%	-0.63%	-0.21%		-0.66%
CHF	0.64%	0.25%	1.10%	0.72%	0.04%	0.44%	0.66%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

GBP/USD remains offered; bears target 1.3600

GBP/USD now leaves behind part of its recent recovery and revisits the low 1.3600s at the beginning of the week. Indeed, Cable trades with a mild downward bias amid decent gains in the Greenback as investors remain wary of upcoming US data releases and the Jackson Hole event.

EUR/USD remains sidelined above 1.1650

EUR/USD trades on the defensive following the closing bell on Wall Street on Monday, hovering around the 1.1660 region and adding to Friday’s small decline. The pair’s pullback comes in response to an acceptable rebound in the US Dollar in a context of generalised caution ahead of key US data releases and Chair Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole.

Gold poised to extend its bullish run

Gold surrenders part of its initial advance, although it keeps its bullish pace well and sound above the $4,600 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The precious metal’s move higher comes despite slight gains in the US Dollar and a modest pullback in US Treasury yields across the curve.

XRP surged 72%, but is the rally really about XRP?

Ripple (XRP) surged more than 72% in less than a week, its strongest rally since July 2025, as cryptocurrency prices broadly broke out. But the move has a problem: it may have little to do with XRP itself. The token's near-term rally appears to have been driven largely by a broader liquidity shift after the US Treasury expanded long-end bond buybacks, pulling yields lower and lifting risk assets.

Convulsion in credit markets

The United States government just posted a $432.3 billion deficit for July, the largest monthly shortfall since March of 2021. That single burst of red ink pushed the yeartodate deficit to $1.8 trillion, with two months still remaining in fiscal 2026. At this pace, Washington will soon wax nostalgic for the “good old days” when annual deficits were only $2 trillion.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.