EUR/JPY above 130.50 post-Draghi speech

President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi just delivered a speech in Florence of rather academic nature.
EUR/JPY is gaining strength breaking above the 130.50 level.

Flavio Tosti Independent Analyst

The EUR/JPY is trading at around 130.60 up 0.20% as Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank just delivered a speech in Florence at the 8th edition of The State of the Union which is organized by the European University Institute. The speech was academic in nature and did not reveal new information regarding future monetary policy in the Eurozone.

The EUR/JPY tested the 130.00 handle in the European session and then bulls lifted the cross above the 130.60 in the American session.

The EUR/JPY is mainly mimicking its big brother EUR/USD which is trading higher on the back of USD weakness. Indeed the US dollar had a strong three-week bull run, but as the recent US inflation and Non-Farm Payroll came below market estimates and the end of the week spurred profit-taking from investors' long USD positions.

The USD has been gaining strength on the back of further rate hike expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank. However, as the recent US macroeconomic data was somewhat disappointing, traders are starting to doubt that four rate hikes will come in 2018.

EUR/JPY level to watch

The medium-term trend is bullish and resistance is seen at 130.76 swing high and at the 131.00 handle, while support is seen at 130.50 demand level and the 130.00 handle.

Author

Flavio Tosti

Independent Analyst

AUD/USD seems vulnerable near 0.6800, 10-month low amid bullish USD

AUD/USD languishes near a 10-month low during the Asian session on Friday, awaiting a break below 0.6800 before the next leg up amid a bullish US Dollar. Firming Fed rate-hike expectations, along with fading hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, help the USD hold gains at its highest level since April 2025. Moreover, the RBA’s dovish tilt undermines the Aussie and backs the case for further losses.

USD/JPY bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid intervention risks

USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase around its highest level since early September as bulls turn cautious amid intervention risk near 160.00. Meanwhile, the downside seems cushioned as the wide US-Japan interest rate gap keeps the Yen carry trade active. Furthermore, the possibility of a jumbo Fed rate hike and Middle East uncertainties hold the US Dollar near a 19-month top, supporting the currency pair.

Gold finds temporary floor near $3,850, downside risks persist

Gold rises almost 0.9% to near $3,915 in the early trade on Friday after posting a fresh 13-month low near $3,850 the previous day. The recovery move in the Gold price after a massive decline in the past few days started Tuesday appears to be short-lived as several headwinds are boosting bears to keep up the dominance.

Bitcoin slips below $70,000 for the first time since August

Bitcoin is attracting some serious sellers, pushing it below $70,000 on Friday after an over 3% decline the previous day. The Crypto King is down over 5% so far this week, and a bearish close could mark its sixth consecutive week of losses. The technical outlook for Bitcoin is bearish, with sellers tightening their grip despite overextending the downtrend to oversold levels.

Asian stocks post mixed results amid Nvidia leadership turmoil, Anthropic IPO buzz

Asian stocks post mixed results on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index climbing 0.91% to around 61,370 and China’s Shanghai Composite rising 0.22% to 3,660. Conversely, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.82% to 23,810, while South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.49% to near 5,320.

What the US CPI headline doesn’t tell you about inflation

Brent crude has fallen about a third since mid-October on hopes the Iran war is ending, but diesel, freight and fertiliser costs haven't followed. Those costs reach US consumer prices in stages through 2027 and could keep inflation high after gasoline gets cheaper.