• The shared currency struggles at 0.8366 and drops below a bottom trendline of a descending channel, opening the door for further losses.
  • A dismal market mood weighs more on the euro than the British pound.
  • EUR/GBP Price Forecast: A break below 0.8307 would exacerbate a fall towards 0.8202.

The EUR/GBP slides for the second consecutive day in the week, and on its way down, the EUR/GBP broke the bottom trendline of a descending channel, exerting additional downward pressure on the already battered euro. At the time of writing, the EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8328.

A dismal market mood usually has favored the euro, but the conflict between Ukraine-Russia is taking place in Europe; it weighs on the shared currency. Furthermore, comments made on Tuesday by Russian President Vladimir Putin that talks with Ukraine are at a dead end, so the hopes of a cease-fire or truce seem farther now than before. Meanwhile, hostilities remain in the region of Donetsk as Russia regroups its troops as evacuations of the area continue.

Another factor that accelerated the euro depreciation was the ZEW Economic Sentiment for Apri, which came worse than March’s reading in the Euro area and Germany. Furthermore, Germany reported inflation for March that rose by 7.3%, in line with expectations but much higher than the 5.1% February jump.

Elsewhere, the UK docket unveiled the jobs report. The Unemployment rate rose by 3.8% in line with forecasts, while Employment Change for January reported that the economy added just 10K jobs, lower than the 40K estimated. Albeit the report was mixed, the British pound has the upper hand as the Bank of England has already hiked rates, while the ECB is to finish first the Quantitative Easing by the summer of 2022.

Therefore, the EUR/GBP will keep falling unless the ECB turns more hawkish on Thursday, April 14, when the ECB unveils its Interest Rates Decision.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/GBP remains downward biased, as shown by the daily moving averages (DMAs) located above the spot price, with a downslope. Furthermore, the EUR/GBP broke the bottom trendline of a descending channel, exacerbating a move towards March 07 swing low at 0.8202. Nevertheless, the cross-currency pair would need to overcome essential demand zones on its way south.

The EUR/GBP’s first support would be the April 12 0.8319 daily low. A decisive break would expose the April 7 daily low at 0.8307, followed by March 23 daily low at 0.8295. If that level gives way to EUR/GBP sellers, a move towards the YTD low at 0.8202 is on the cards.

EUR/GBP

Overview
Today last price 0.8327
Today Daily Change -0.0024
Today Daily Change % -0.29
Today daily open 0.8351
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.8378
Daily SMA50 0.837
Daily SMA100 0.8398
Daily SMA200 0.8462
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.8381
Previous Daily Low 0.8343
Previous Weekly High 0.8431
Previous Weekly Low 0.8308
Previous Monthly High 0.8512
Previous Monthly Low 0.8203
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.8366
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.8357
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8336
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8321
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.8298
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.8374
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.8396
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.8412

 

 

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