The Swiss National Bank surprised the market by refraining from raising interest rates further. As a result, the Franc depreciated. Economists at Commerzbank analyze CHF outlook.
Little appreciation potential for EUR/CHF
Contrary to what the majority of economists had expected, SNB did not hike its key rate but kept it on hold at 1.75%.
The SNB still sees considerable upside risks for inflation due to second-round effects which can in parts be observed already. Small changes to the framework conditions might mean that the SNB will have to raise its projections again (1.9% for 2025) and that inflation might rise back above price stability levels. For that reason, the SNB has kept the door open for further rate hikes and also confirmed its willingness to intervene in the FX market.
As this is a hawkish pause the deprecation pressure on the Franc is likely to be limited. In particular as more significant depreciation might cause the SNB to intervene again.
As EUR tends to be under depreciation pressure at present, now that the ECB has signalled the end of its rate hike cycle, we see little appreciation potential for EUR/CHF.
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