European Natural Gas surges 85% on Qatar LNG shock, Hormuz disruptions

Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures for the April 2026 contract, the benchmark for European Natural Gas prices, are rallying sharply, trading around €59.62, up 33.97% on Tuesday at the time of writing, extending the price surge to more than 85% since Friday's close. The gains were triggered by QatarEnergy’s decision to suspend all Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production following attacks on its industrial facilities.

Qatar accounts for roughly 20% of global LNG export capacity according to Oilprice, and the simultaneous shutdown of the Ras Laffan and Mesaieed sites represents one of the largest supply shocks seen in the Gas market since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. QatarEnergy’s declaration of force majeure adds to uncertainty for buyers tied to long-term contracts, who may now be forced to turn to the spot market.

Tensions extend beyond Qatari facilities. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Gulf Gas and Oil exports, is severely disrupted following the strikes and Iranian threats. Even without prolonged structural damage, a slowdown in flows is enough to intensify competition between Europe and Asia for alternative cargoes from the United States (US) and Australia.

In Europe, the situation is particularly sensitive as storage levels remain below those recorded at the same time last year, leaving the region more exposed to a prolonged disruption. According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs estimates that a one-month interruption of flows through Hormuz could lead to a doubling of European Gas prices compared to levels seen before the escalation, underscoring the scale of systemic risk.

“A hypothetical longer disruption of Natural Gas supply transit through the Strait of Hormuz lasting more than two months would likely lift European natural gas prices above €100/MWh ($35/mmBtu) to trigger more significant global Gas demand destruction”, added Goldman Sachs analysts.

In the United States, Henry Hub futures are rising more moderately, as the domestic market is structurally less exposed to imports. The US Natural Gas (XNG/USD) trades around $3.15 at the time of press, 5.40% higher on the day. However, higher prices in Europe and Asia reinforce the export premium and limit flexibility for international buyers, especially as US liquefaction facilities are already operating at elevated capacity.

Beyond the immediate price reaction, this episode may durably reshape perceptions of geopolitical risk in the Natural Gas market. Europe’s increased reliance on LNG since the reduction of Russian pipeline flows has heightened its exposure to maritime tensions and regional conflicts. Even if Qatari production resumes quickly, fierce competition for available cargoes could keep Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures elevated in the coming weeks, embedding a more structural risk premium into forward contracts.