EUR/CHF: A stronger euro allows the SNB to sit on the sidelines – CIBC

Analysts at CIBC, see the EUR/CHF pair heading higher over the next months, amid a stronger euro. They see the pair rising to 1.0850 during the third quarter and 1.09 in the fourth. 

Key Quotes: 

“The SNB (Swiss National Bank) continues on a unique path amongst central banks, focusing upon currency intervention rather than cutting rates further into negative territory or embarking upon QE. We expect that currency management will be the primary tool for the SNB, despite the prospect of a record economic contraction in 2020.”

“We expect the SNB to remain vigilant watchers of the CHF going forward, especially should EUR/CHF threaten to drift back below the 1.06 threshold. However, that is not our central case scenario as we remain upbeat on the EUR leg via German fiscal easing, ECB PEPP expansion and moves towards a type of fiscal transfer within the union.”

“There will be less intervention appetite as EUR/CHF moves away from the 1.06 threshold. We are looking for the prospect of EUR/USD gains to drag EUR/CHF towards 1.09, leaving the SNB to largely sit on the side-lines for now.”

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