EUR: Breaking key technical levels post ECB - ANZ

The ECB’s recalibration of QE purchases for 2018 was as expected: reduced bond-buying to EUR30bn per month for nine months and reinvestment of maturing assets well past the end of QE, according to analysts at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“The central bank also updated its forward guidance, which is important for FX markets. At the October meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) stressed that if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, it stands ready to adjust its QE purchases in terms of size and/or duration.”

“The exchange rate has a large role to play in shaping financial conditions of the region. In its updated macroeconomic projections published in September, the ECB based its inflation projections on a rate of 1.18 for EUR/USD and emphasised that a sustained rise in the exchange rate could undermine the inflation outlook. In part, we feel the latest guidance from the central bank is an implicit signal to FX markets that the ECB has limited tolerance for a much stronger euro. We think the upper tolerance level in the foreseeable future is not much higher above 1.20. Also, the planned extension of QE purchases until September 2018 takes the speculative element of ECB policy settings off the agenda for the FX market for now, with the focus back to the US.”   

“Technically, EUR/USD has broken below the 100-day moving average (1.1679), the first time since last March. This also happens to be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the pair’s high in September 2017 (1.2092) to the low in January 2017 (1.0341).” 

“In terms of positioning, we are also wary that the market is caught long in the EUR. CFTC data showed that leveraged accounts’ net long EUR positions are close to the highest in three-and-a-half years.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

How do emotions affect trade?
Follow up our daily analysts guidance

Subscribe Today!    

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD slides under 1.16 as US Retail Sales smash estimates

EUR/USD is trading under 1.16 after US Retail Sales smashed estimates with 0.7% in September. Treasury yields are rising. The risk-on mood continues to underpin the pair, as the ECB policymaker Wunsch dismisses inflation concerns. 


GBP/USD retreats below 1.3750 after US data

GBP/USD has pared some of its gains after US Retail Sales beat estimates, with the core group hitting 0.8% last month. Earlier, investors shrugged off dovish comments from two BOE members. 


XAU/USD slumps to $1,770 area on upbeat US data, surging US bond yields

Gold started the last day of the week on the back foot and extended its slide to a fresh daily low of $1,770 in the early trading hours of the American session pressured by the dollar's resilience and surging US Treasury bond yields.

Gold News

Crypto bulls on winning streak pushing for more

Bitcoin price favors bulls reaching $60,000 by the end of this week and onwards to new all-time highs by the end of next week. Ethereum price broke a bearish top line and could hit new all-time highs by next week in tandem with Bitcoin. 

Read more

Why is Tesla going up?

Tesla's (TSLA) stock price has finally pushed higher in a series of steady and sure moves. We had nearly given up on our bullish call with Tesla stock as it kept struggling around the $800 level.

Read more