EUR: Be careful what you wish for – Rabobank

In the year to date, the Euro (EUR) is the second best performing G10 currency. This appears out of kilter with Germany’s struggling economy, which is in danger of falling back into technical recession in Q3, Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes.

The value of EUR/USD continues its ascent

“Although some models suggest that at current levels, EUR is undervalued vs. the USD, the Eurozone’s real effective exchange rate is trading comfortably off its post pandemic low and around the middle of the range maintained since the single currency’s inception.”

This suggests that the value of the currency was no obstacle to the ECB cutting rates in June. Indeed, if the value of EUR/USD continues its ascent, given the backdrop of moderating inflationary pressure in the Eurozone, there may be more reason for the ECB to lower rates.

If a stronger EUR triggers expectations that the pace of ECB rate cuts could be hastened, this will have an automatic moderating impact on the value of EUR/USD. Consequently, we don’t see EUR/USD trading much higher than 1.12 in the coming months. We see scope for dips back to 1.10 if forthcoming key US economic data surprises on the upside.