Energy: Peace deal hopes fade further – ING

Oil prices rallied after the German Chancellor Merz said it’s unlikely that Presidents Zelensky and Putin will meet, providing a blow to hopes for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Given the lack of progress since Putin’s summit with President Trump, this isn’t a big surprise. Meanwhile, Russia carried out a fresh wave of deadly attacks on Kyiv, damaging buildings housing the EU mission and the British Council. The lack of progress towards a peace deal means risks of sanctions and secondary tariffs continue to hang over the oil market, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

European natural gas prices are under pressure

"Insights Global data shows that gasoil inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region increased by 53kt WoW to 2.09mt, the fourth consecutive week of increases. Inventories have now increased by more than 20%. This takes gasoil inventories in the ARA region close to the 5-year average, which should help ease concerns over middle distillate tightness. However, gasoline inventories fell by 54kt WoW to 991kt, extending a trend we’ve seen for much of the year. European gasoline demand in some key markets has been fairly robust for much of this year, contributing to lower stocks. Tighter gasoline stocks are providing some late-season strength to gasoline cracks in NW Europe."

"In Singapore, onshore refined product stocks fell by 346k barrels to 47.54m barrels. Light and middle distillate stocks fell by 1.67m barrels and 366k barrels, respectively, while residual fuel inventories grew 1.69m barrels."

"European natural gas prices came under pressure yesterday, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) settling 2.95% lower. This is despite Norwegian gas flows to Europe falling to their lowest level since mid-July amid ongoing maintenance work in Norway. Despite these lower flows, EU storage continues to tick higher, standing at close to 77% full, although this is still below the seasonal 5-year average of 84%."