Research Team at TDS, is looking for the ECB to keep rates on hold this week, and to delay any official QE extension announcement until December.

Key Quotes

“The macro forecasts are unlikely to suggest an immediate urgency to ease, with the impact from Brexit appearing to be far smaller than what had been feared.

When the ECB does announce its QE extension it will need to deal with an impending scarcity issue. We think that it will opt to scrap the deposit rate floor on asset purchases. This should lead to steeper EGB curves.

Waiting until December to announce an extension of the Asset Purchase Program gives the ECB more time to assess the impact of Brexit on growth and calibrate its monthly purchases in response.”

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