ECB likely a non-event for FX – OCBC

Today's main event is the ECB meeting. Economists at OCBC Bank analyze how the Monetary Policy Statement could impact the FX market.

ECB to remain on hold

It is widely expected for the ECB to remain on hold. In fact, our house view is that the ECB is done tightening for current cycle. It is likely ECB may potentially start a debate on how they want to tackle excess liquidity in next stage of inflation fight. 

Discussion on how to reduce excess liquidity will focus on three areas: 1/ the amount of reserves banks must keep at the ECB; 2/ the unwinding of its bond-buying programmes and 3/ a new framework for steering short-term interest rates. These imply that raising minimum RR should not be ruled out. 

Overall, the ECB meeting is likely a non-event for FX.