ECB: Dovish risks prevail, EUR/USD to slip into fresh ranges - TDS

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver a dovish message, which could send the EUR/USD pair to fresh yearly lows.

Key Quotes:

“The odds of a dovishly more proactive ECB look twice as high as those of a hawkish disappointment.

The press conference is key to the ECB's view on the rate floor, potential QE, low inflation expectations, and reinforcing a "symmetric" inflation target.

With our base case fully priced and EUR weak, we see some scope upside if Draghi delivers as expected.

Dovish risks prevail, which could send EURUSD lower into fresh ranges.

Next week's FOMC may constrain follow-through.”

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

US Nonfarm Payrolls holds the key to Gold's next big move

Gold has returned to the red zone in Asia after failing several attempts to regain $4,200. Traders now eagerly await the US Nonfarm Payrolls data for September, which could significantly alter market expectations for an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike, having a major bearing on the US Dollar valuation and Gold’s next major move.

Pepe Price Forecast: PEPE sustains mild recovery on firm retail support

Pepe (PEPE) price holds steady around $0.00000440 at press time on Friday, sustaining the 3.50% gains from the previous day's rebound. The meme coin maintains firm retail demand, with its futures Open Interest stabilizing above $320 million and funding rates remaining positive. PEPE must reclaim the $0.00000500 psychological barrier to sustain an upward trend.

Why speculators slashed Yen longs by the most since August — and what that signals about risk

For much of the past month, the Japanese Yen (JPY) had become one of the market's preferred defensive trades. Hedge funds accumulated more than 170K net long contracts over four weeks as investors positioned for tighter Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and a more cautious outlook for global growth.

Markets are pricing a Fed pause. The jobs data says the hike is still coming

The market has rapidly changed its mind about the Federal Reserve (Fed). Only a week ago, investors saw an October interest-rate hike as the most likely outcome. However, softer inflation and cautious comments from policymakers have since turned a pause into the dominant scenario. Yet beneath that dramatic repricing, the US economy is sending a considerably less dovish message.