ECB Call Update: Lowering the central-case terminal rate to 1.50% – Deutsche Bank

Central-case terminal rate forecast was lowered from 2.25% to 1.50%, Deutsche Bank’s team of economists note.

1.00-1.75% to be the main landing zone for the ECB

“Rather than the ECB policy rate returning to neutral in mid-2025 we now see the rate falling moderately below neutral by end-2025. The rationale in part relates to the prospect of US tariffs under a new Trump Administration and in part a weaker underlying macro performance and the emerging threat of below-target inflation.”

“Uncertainty is high on many levels, from the exact impact of US tariffs to the timing of their implementation to how and when Europe responds. As such, we emphasize wide confidence bands around the outlook for European growth, inflation and monetary policy. Capturing this uncertainty, we consider 1.00-1.75% to be the main landing zone for the ECB terminal rate.”

“The factors that will determine the path to and the level of the terminal rate will include (1) fiscal policy, (2) Germany, (3) China, and (4) oil prices. In aggregate, the global economy may now be in a different regime and Europe could be heading for more divergent macro conditions relative to the US.”