DXY: Watching the upcoming data – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The US Dollar (USD) inched higher overnight after FOMC minutes unveiled details of pushback at the September FOMC. DXY was last at 102.99, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Middle eastern tentions and US elections deserve monitoring

“On Fedspeaks, Daly said she expects 1 or 2 more cut this year while Collins said that 50bp cut in Sep was prudent given risks. Elsewhere, Logan said she supported a slower path of interest rate reduction. Dovish expectation on Fed cut have now been priced out. Markets are just eyeing about 45bp cut for the rest of the year, as opposed to 75bps cut seen just 2-3 weeks ago. Markets and Fed’s dot plot are now in alignment.”

“USD has also rebounded, partially retracing the earlier ~5% decline seen in 3Q. To some extent, USD may have settled into this temporal state of equilibrium where the risks from here can largely be 2-way. Daily momentum remains bullish but rise in RSI shows signs of moderation near overbought conditions. 2-way trades likely. Resistance here at 103.30 (100 DMA). Support at 101.75/90 levels (50 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low), 101.30 (21 DMA).”

“Apart from US CPI, initial jobless claims (Thursday) and PPI (Friday), there is no clear major US data catalyst until the next payrolls or core PCE data in a few weeks’ time. In terms of event risks, geopolitical tensions in middle east and US elections deserve monitoring. Even at this point, Harris and Trump are polling neck-and-neck. Markets adopting a cautious stance ahead of US elections may imply that USD may still stay supported on dips.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD hits nine-week lows below 0.7000 on RBA Bullock's remarks

AUD/USD reverses a brief uptick and turns lower to hit nine-week lows below 0.7000 in the European morning on Tuesday, as traders digest cautious remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock during the press conference. Earlier on, the RBA raised the cash rate to 4.60%, as widely expected, leaving the door open to further rate hikes if needed.

USD/JPY consolidates near 157.50 as a bullish USD counters intervention risks

USD/JPY struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a one-week low, consolidating around 157.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Trump's concerns about the Japanese Yen's weakness fueled speculation about another US-Japan joint intervention. This, along with the hawkish BoJ, underpins the JPY and caps the currency pair. Meanwhile, rising Fed rate-hike bets and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year highs, keeping the US Dollar pinned near a two-month high and supporting the pair.

Gold regains some traction; focus remains on $4,100

Gold manages to gather some composure and bounces off recent lows near the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The move higher in the precious metal comes despite the firmer US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields across the board, while escalating geopolitical tensions appear to limit the downside potential.