|

DXY: Break below 100-DMA may open room for further downside – OCBC

US Dollar (USD) fell overnight as UST yields retreated while US equities slipped. US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Bloomberg TV in an interview that any move to boost the share of longer-term treasuries in government debt issuance is some ways off, given elevated inflation and Fed’s QT. DXY was last seen at 106.68, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum is bearish

"On Fedspeaks, Bostic said that he expects that Fed will lower rates twice in 2025 though uncertainty around that projection has risen. Earlier during Asia time yesterday, Trump’s remark that a 'new trade deal with China is possible' also weighed on USD/AxJs. Elsewhere, US exceptionalism (US equities over MSCI world) has been easing, albeit from elevated levels amidst chatters of rotation into Chinese equities."

"Fading US exceptionalism can weigh on USD, especially if the rest of the world still holds up. Daily momentum is bearish while RSI is near oversold conditions. Key support here at 106.30/40 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high). Decisive break here may open room for further downside towards 105.50, 105.20 levels (50% fibo). Resistance at 107, 107.50/80 levels (23.6% fibo, 21 DMA) and 108 (50 DMA)."

"Day ahead to watch prelim PMIs, Uni of Michigan sentiment and existing home sales. Weaker print can weigh on USD."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.1750 due to cautious trade before FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD holds ground after four days of little losses, trading around 1.1770 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains steady as US Dollar moves little amid market caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee December Meeting Minutes due later in the day, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s 2026 outlook.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold rises on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven flows

Gold price edges higher above $4,350 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was gold's largest single-day loss since October.  Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Solana risks correction within descending wedge as bearish bets rise

Solana hovers above $120 at press time on Tuesday after a nearly 2% decline on Monday. The SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds see renewed interest after recording their lowest weekly inflow last week.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).