DXY: 2-way trades seem likely – OCBC

The US government shutdown adds another layer of data and market uncertainty. Past shutdowns have often coincided with demand for safe haven proxy including gold while the USD broadly traded softer though outcomes can vary with duration of shutdown. DXY last seen at 97.78, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Mild bullish momentum on daily chart fades

"The last shutdown in 2018 crossing over to 2019 (during Trump presidency 1.0) was one of the longest (over 30days) in modern history. And during that period, gold was up nearly 4%. USD/JPY, USD/SGD was down 1.5%; DXY was down over 1%. With US government in shutdown since 1 Oct, most Federal data will be postponed at least till government reopens. As per BLS, the payrolls data (originally scheduled for today) is likely not going to be released."

"The COT CFTC positioning data is likely to be delayed as well and if the shutdown lasts longer, US retail sales and CPI data releases in the week after next will likely be affected. Nevertheless, private and Fed survey data will still be available (such as ISM survey, Uni of Michigan dataset, empire manufacturing, etc.) for markets and Fed policymakers to digest. Fedspeaks may also be another source of info for markets to rely on. We have Williams, Miran, Goolsbee and Jefferson for the rest of the week. At the same time, many major markets in Asia are closed today and early next week."

"Thin market liquidity in Asia and absence of data releases in US may well see subdued activity or even amplify price action on any shocks and surprises. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart shows signs of it fading but RSI is flat. 2-way trades likely. Resistance at 98.00/40 levels (50, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo retracement of May high to Sep low) and 99 levels (50% fibo). Support at 97.60 (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo), 97.20."