Duolingo’s stock is on fire – But can it keep going amidst economic uncertainty? [Video]

Duolingo Inc (DUOL), an American edtech company, offers over 100 language courses, including popular and less commonly studied languages. The platform uses gamified lessons with translating, interactive exercises, quizzes, and stories to make learning more engaging. Its unique algorithm adapts to each learner’s level and learning style for personalized feedback and recommendations. Duolingo also offers a language certification program, a literacy app for children, and a math app for iOS. The platform also offers podcasts with simplified grammar, vocabulary, and slower intonation for intermediate level learners. DUOL is listed on NASDAQ.

Wyckoff change of character leading into accumulation phase and breakout

DUOL has been in downtrend after hitting an all-time high of $205 on 22 Sep 2021. The Wyckoff distribution persisted until a Wyckoff selling climax (SC) on 15 March 2022 where it hit $64.80. The subsequent reaction was a relatively impulsive automatic rally to reach $101.50. This had the characteristics of Wyckoff change of character (CHoH) as the price structure shifted from downtrend to a trading range.

For the next few months, the price tested the highs and lows of the range. Several Wyckoff upthrust (UT) was formed but unable to commit above the resistance of $101.50. Yet the duration DUOL spent in the upper trading range $90-$110 showed evidence of strength.

The price did one last leg down to test the low in late October to December of 2022 with low volume suggested exhaustion of supply. At the beginning of 2023, DUOL price had a localized Wyckoff spring then started a significant Wyckoff sign of strength (SOS) rally. It was the best rally and the pull back from resistance was shallow, forming the Wyckoff last point of support (LPS). This is the sign before a successful breakout of the Wyckoff accumulation phase. With earning results as catalyst, the price gap up above the $101.50 resistance and committed above it. This was accompanied by increased volume hinting at the presence of demand. The up trend took a momentary Wyckoff back up (BU) pullback forming a higher low at $114 before continuing on the phase E uptrend as tweeted below.

Bias

Bullish. According to the Wyckoff method, DUOL has just broken out of the BU range of $130.50 and is overextended short-term. The price might retest this level and before challenging the next immediate resistance at $154 and $165.

If the price breaks below $130.50, it will likely retest the support at $114 with a prolonged consolidation.

DUOL was discussed in detail in my weekly live group coaching on 7 Mar 2023 before the market opened. Despite the failure scenario shown as discussed in this latest video (refer below), the characteristics of the FOMC bar were not as bearish as anticipated. This could present a trading opportunity for DUOL to ride on its strong bullish momentum.